AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Rebounds on Turnaround Tuesday

November 19, 2019

Corn rebounded on Turnaround Tuesday, the futures were back up by 2 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents for the nearby contracts. The CZ/CH spread has widened to 10.75, as compared to last Tuesday when the spread was at 8.75. This time last year the CZ/CH premium was 11 cents. The USDA announced a private export sale of 191,000 MT of corn to an unknown destination with a 19/20 MY delivery. Corn basis was -0.1478 this morning, bringing the monthly average basis to -0.1501 so far. Last year the basis was -.3529. The propane shortage for grain drying has led to 8 state governors declaring a state of emergency; IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, ND, SD, and WI. The USDA’s weekly crop progress report showed that corn harvest was 76% completed. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentinean corn planting is 44.3% complete, as of 11/13.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.70, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.80 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.86 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.92 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Rebound On Turnaround Tuesday

November 19, 2019

Soybean futures found support on Monday helping to bounce the front months upwards by 1 1/4 to 2 cents higher. Soybean meal was up $0.80/ton, and soybean oil gained 32 points to also add product value on Tuesday. The national average soybean basis is -0.6265 per cmdtyView, bringing the monthly average to -0.6638 so far. The trend is 13 consecutive days of tightening dating back to the start of the month when the basis was -0.7292. Last year the basis for 11/19 was -0.8881, and the Nov average up till then had been -0.9827. US Soybean FOB prices were reported to be between Brazil and Argentina, @$359.00/MT (~$9.77/bushel).

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.11 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.24 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.36 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.47 3/4, up 2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $302.00, up $0.80,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.96, up $0.32

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Gaining Again

November 19, 2019

Tuesday wheat futures were mostly higher with Kansas City HRW futures leading the way. Chicago wheat futures were up 3 1/4 to 4 3/4 cents higher at closing, KC wheat made gains by as much as 7 1/4 cents in nearby contracts. MPLS HRS ended Tuesday steady to 1 cent lower. Japan’s lower house has passed the trade deal signed by President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on October 7th, and it should cut tariffs on wheat, beef, pork, among other US ag goods by an estimated $7 billion. Japan’s upper house has yet to sign off, but is expected to before December 9th. Japan has tendered for 119,998 MT of wheat.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.12, up 4 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.25 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.03 1/4, unch,

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Lower on Tuesday

November 19, 2019

Live cattle futures made some recoveries from midday lows, but still finished mostly in the red. Apr was down the most, dropping 20 cents after Tuesday’s trading. Feeder cattle futures also made afternoon recoveries. The last trading day for Nov FC futures is Thursday. They gained 22 cents, while Jan and Mar closed 25 to 45 cents lower on the day. The 11/18 CME Feeder Cattle index was lower by 15 cents to $146.54. Afternoon boxed beef prices came back down since being higher for the morning. Choice boxes gave back 11 cents, at $239.01. Select boxes were 12 cents lower, to $215.47. The USDA reported minimal cash trading activity through the day with a handful of steers sold between $114-$116. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction tomorrow will feature 1398 head, 63% NE, 28% KS. The trade deal with Japan has been ratified by the lower house of the Japanese parliament; the upper house is expected to also sign off on the deal to ratify it into law by December 9th. The trade deal is set to reduce tariffs on beef, pork, wheat and wine to levels similar to those given TPP signatories. The USDA’s weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter is up to 236,000 head through Tuesday, that’s 6,000 head below the time last year.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $118.775, up $0.075,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.050, down $0.050,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.200, down $0.200,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.600, up $0.225

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.025, down $0.450

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.475, down $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Finish 60 cents Lower.

November 19, 2019

Lean hog futures recovered from triple digit losses at midday, but still finished 60 cents lower. The 11/15 CME Lean Hog Index was lower by $0.27, at $59.24. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value came back down by $4.47 this afternoon, to $84.67, after being up by 30.141% (29.545% over 11/19 last year) over the same time last year. Yesterday the ham cuts reached the highest they’d ever been for November 18, but gave back 11.81 today at $83.72. The belly also dropped big, down by $10.54 in the afternoon. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/19 was 17 cents higher to $42.31. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter to be a daily record of 494,000 head for Tuesday, following yesterday’s near record daily slaughter the week is on pace to be a record setting weekly slaughter, currently at 987,000 head.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $62.150, down $0.600,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $69.625, down $0.600

APR 20 Hogs closed at $75.750, down $0.600

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Futures Lower Again

November 19, 2019

Cotton futures followed Monday’s decreases with more of the same on Tuesday. Nearby futures posted losses of 63 to 82 points at midday. The Seam reported 3,583 bales sold at an average price of 55.07 cents/lb for 11/18. Egyptian cotton has retained profitability, with the Nile Cotton Ginning Report showing a profit of 467,172 Egyptian pounds (28,964.664 U$D) on the year through 9/30. Last year at this point they reported a net loss of 2,408,783 pounds ($149.344.546). The USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report stated that cotton harvest is 68% complete. The Cotlook A Index was boosted on 11/18 to 75.50 cents/lb, up 60 points. The AWP for cotton will be 57.06 cents/lb through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.39, down 82 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.32, down 65 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.61, down 63 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 67.62, down 70 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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